Pending Home Sales Index Shows Market May Be Stabilizing

WASHINGTON, June 01, 2007

A forward-looking indicator based on pending home sales shows the housing market could edge down but appears to be in the process of leveling out, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index*, based on contracts signed in April, stood at 101.4, down 3.2 percent from an upwardly revised March reading of 104.8, and is 10.2 percent lower than April 2006 when it registered 112.9. The revised March index was 10.0 percent below a year earlier.
Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said the current index appears to be a fair representation of overall housing market conditions. “It looks like we may be leaving a period of market disruptions, and for the past two months the pending home sales index has been similar in year-ago comparisons, which means home sales might ease but should be fairly stable in the months ahead,” he said.

“In April, existing-home sales declined in part because some subprime lenders went out of business and disrupted the market, but the impact appears to be diminishing and mortgage applications have risen in the last month,” Yun said. “This tells us that some borrowers who originally planned to finance with subprime mortgages are finding suitable loans in the conventional market, which will help to stabilize home sales.”
“On the other hand, psychological factors seem to be holding buyers back as they look for clear signs that the market has bottomed – that varies from one area to another.”The index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Annual changes in the index are more closely related to actual market performance than are month-to-month comparisons. As the relatively new index matures and seasonal adjustment factors are refined, the month-to-month comparisons will become more meaningful.
The PHSI in the Midwest rose 2.3 percent in April to 98.1 but was 4.4 percent below a year ago. The index in the South increased 0.7 percent from March to 116.0, but was 10.4 percent below April 2006. The index in the West fell 10.2 percent in April to 91.4 and was 11.7 percent lower than a year ago. In the Northeast, the index dropped 10.4 percent from March to 89.3 and was 15.4 percent below April 2006.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

* The Pending Home Sales Index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
The forecast will be revised June 6, and existing-home sales for May will be released June 25. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be on July 3.

Source: National Association of Realtors

Dorothy Visser Senior Center, Capital Campaign

A new community facility named the Dorothy Visser Senior Center is being developed for seniors of San Clemente. I first became aware of this project in 2006 and joined the effort by making a contribution to the capital campaign on behalf of my real estate company McMillion & Associates of Prudential (See Bob's Blog "Dorothy Visser Senior Center" posting dated March 1, 2007). The Honorary Chairperson for the capital campaign is former San Clemente Mayor, Susan Ritschel (pictured above at the far left), and has as co-chairpersons Ralph Klassen and Rex Tyner (not pictured). The campaign cabinet is composed of honorary civic leaders and San Clemente community leaders:

Honorary Cabinet Members

• Ken Calvert, U.S. Congressman


• Mark Wyland, State Senator


• Pat Bates, Orange County Supervisor


• Lori Donchak, San Clemente Councilperson


• Wayne Eggleston, San Clemente Councilperson


• Steve Knoblock, San Clemente Councilperson
  

Campaign Cabinet Members

• Jo Anderson, San Clemente Mayor Pro-tem


• Jeff Bott, Transportation Corridor Agency


• Ed & Maggie Chang, Community Leaders


• Dr. Marilyn Ditty, Executive Director, South County Sr. Services


• Gerald Gibbs, Gibbs Law Firm


• Geoff Layng, Community Leader


• Christine Lampert, Lampert Architects


• Cathy M. Lee, Director, Seaside Senior Center


• Karen Lichty, Community Leader


• Mike McGovern, SunCal


• Cherie Veach, Community Leader


• Bob Watson, Community Leader

Campaign Consultant

• Tom Larimore, Community Leader
  

The project is presently in the capital campaign phase seeking to raise $3.5 million. As of April 1, 2007 contributions and pledges total $2.7 million. When construction is completed the seniors of San Clemente will have a planned 8000 Sq. Ft. Senior Center in conjunction with a new fire station on the property facing Avenida Victoria near El Camino Real which today is a vacant lot behind the Hollywood Video/Starbucks building.

Building permits have not yet been issued yet, although both the San Clemente Planning Commission and the City Council have approved the site plan and the building plan. This is the front elevation of the what the combined facility will look like with the Senior Center on the left and the fire station on the right.

The new facility was named in honor of the late Dorothy Visser who was a longtime supporter and participant in the current San Clemente Senior Center. Over the years, Ms. Visser contributed more than $1 million to the senior organization. She passed away in 2006 at the age of 103. The capital campaign was bolstered by a contribution from Marblehead Coastal through the efforts of the late Jim Johnson who was head of the development project at Marblehead. Local real estate professionals have pledged $300,000 to the capital campaign. This commitment will be acknowledged by naming a large multi-purpose room in the new center "The South County Real Estate Professionals Ballroom."

Those wishing more information or to make a contribution to the capital campaign may call Susan Ritschel, Honorary Chairperson at (949) 683-7677, Cathy Lee, Director Seaside Senior Center at (949) 498-3322 or Tom Larimore, Campaign Consultant at (949) 498-1664.

President's Circle Performance in 2006

2006 was a definitely a year of transition in the residential real estate market as we continued to adjust toward a more normal market. The delirium of 2002-2005 when homes sold in days not in months and where seller's experienced phenomenal year-to-year equity growth are, for now, behind us. Prices are relatively stable today but the velocity of the market has substantially cooled creating a measurable slowdown in unit sales. With the significant decrease in unit sales agents are experiencing extended time on market for many listings and overall reduced production volumes from just a couple of years earlier.

Prudential California Realty acknowledges the accomplishments of their agents the way many organizations honor their sales people with awards for for achieving specific sales or production volumes. On March 13, 2007 the San Clemente Office of Prudential held an awards breakfast where "Top Producers" were recognized by their peers and the executives of Prudential California Realty.

We were honored to be awarded the designation of President's Circle. This is a significant accomplishment for McMillion & Associates signifying that our sales production was in the top 5% of Prudential Real Estate Affiliates worldwide. We finished in the Top 100 for Sales Transaction and Sales Production Volume for all Prudential Agents in Orange County. On hand to present the awards were San Clemente Office Manager, Linda Steele, Regional Vice President, Bob Chapman and President of Prudential, Steve Rodgers. Everyone in sales knows you cannot eat awards and you are as only as good as your last deal but it is rewarding for us to know we made a difference in a lot of people's lives during 2006. Our goal is not to receive awards but to "serve clients first." Visit to our website http://www.mcmillionassociates.com/ and look at our "About Us" pages if you would like to become acquainted with us and to our way of serving our residential real estate clients.

The Coast Community Cleans House

Eager homeowners opened their garages once again, this year on Saturday, March 24, 2007, to participate in the annual "The Coast Community Garage Sale." More than 30 homes engaged in the annual endeavor to clear-out, clean-up, and cash-in on what has become a traditional Springtime event in North San Clemente. Each year the number of participating homeowners grows, making it a bigger and better event for everyone--sellers and buyers.

The event is always officially scheduled to begin at 8:00 AM and run until 12:00 noon but by 7:00 AM you can see sellers and buyers enthusiastically bartering over dusty treasures. Even as I was setting up the last of the "garage sale" signs on the perimeter of the community around 6:30 AM Saturday morning, I could see the most eager garage sale buyers already beginning to cruise the neighborhood looking for those early bird deals. This year homeowners from all four corners of The Coast joined the fun. From Calle Amable to Calle Frontera, from Calle Guadalajara to Calle Amigo, everywhere there could be heard the chatter of neighbors visiting across the cul-de-sac, the sight of reluctant husbands dragging out "the stuff" from inside the house while bed-headed kids staggered around wrapped in cozy blankets gazing at the sight of it all in detached bewilderment.

Here's how it works. McMillion & Associates begins mailing reminder postcards to homeowners of The Coast 30 to 45 days before the event. We send one of these reminder postcards every couple of weeks asking homeowners who want to join in community garage sale to register by calling us or emailing us. Homeowners register with us so we know where all the individual garage sales are going to be in the community, then we can put up signs on Garage Sale Day. We also want to get an idea of what homeowners are going to sell. We use this latter information to create "Community Garage Sale Ads" that we run in the PennySaver and the SC Times on the Thursday before the big event. On the morning of the community garage sale each homeowner is responsible for getting their merchandise out and dealing with their customers. McMillion and & Associates puts up garage sale signs throughout the community directing customers to all the registered garage sale homes. We also make sure we stop by to say hello to all the homeowners and offer them some kind of treat like muffins or bagels.

If you missed this year's event don't worry. We will do it again next Spring, probably in March. If you have questions about The Coast Community Garage Sale or want to get on our email reminder list just send me an email or give me a call.

Yardbirds, Cream, Blind Faith and more ...

Yardbirds, Cream, Blind Faith, and more...I loved them all when I was growing up. I found out last night how much I still love the music and the feeling I get from listening to Eric Clapton. I love my wife too. She gave me tickets last Christmas to see Eric Clapton on March 17th at the Honda Center (formerly the Arowhead Pond, as they say).

The lead act was the Robert Cray Band, a smokin' blues guitarist. If you know who Robert Cray is you probably enjoy his music a lot. If you are unfamiliar with him, you might want to check him out if you like blues guitar. We first saw him at the Pacific Amphitheater in Costa Mesa in 1989 or 1990 at a blues festival.

We had a complete blast! Robert Cray led off with forty minutes of solid, air-tight Southern blues. Then Eric Clapton and his band took the stage for a solid two hours. The band played a variety of songs from all eras of Clapton's forty-plus year career. There were lots of solos by Clapton and the two young guitarists he had with him in the band. One of these guys was truly electrifying. He also played with a slide which created unbelievable sounds (I have to find out who he is and see if he has recordings). They played an acoustic guitar set together and then a series of hits including the Clapton anthem Leyla.

A standing ovation brought an encore of "Crossroads" with Robert Cray and Eric Clapton alternating lead vocals. If you like rock and roll and screaming guitars you may have gotten as excited as I did about this concert. Thanks Maggie it was worth the wait.

Morgan Completes 21 Laps in Jogathon

Our ten year old son, Morgan, has been singing with the All American Boys Chorus (AABC) for about two years. He is a second tenor. It is a great organization for young boys headquartered in Costa Mesa at the Orange County Fairgrounds--they have a rehearsal hall there. The chorus is tuition free, supporting themselves through concert fees, donations and fund raising activities like the annual "jogathon."

This is my son's third jogathon. The concept involves competition between the four parts of the chorus: Basses, Baritones, 1st Tenors and 2nd Tenors to see who can raise the most financial support through sponsorship in the jogathon. Each boy searches out sponsors in various ways including "door knocking" their home neighborhoods, letter mailing, family support and community "blitzes."

During the jogathon campaign period spanning January-March the boys work extremely hard, with the support of their families, to raise funds . They receive incentives in the form of incremental prizes and qualification to attend a fun outing like a trip to Disneyland. The boys seem to love it and it draws the parents into the lives of their boys as they work together to develop and execute a jogathon fundraising strategy.

This year Morgan completed 21 laps (220 yards/lap) at the jogathon which was held this past Saturday, March 17, 2007 near the rehearsal hall in Costa Mesa. It was a tremendous event in so many ways including the money raised to support the AABC, what the boys learned about working together to accomplish a goal, how families worked together with their boys in this life building experience of chorus, and the overflowing enthusiasm that was evident during the jogathon itself as 120 boys and their familes enjoyed a warm spring afternoon together.

We are so grateful for the temendous support Morgan received from his sponsors this year. The sponsor's financial support is vital to the AABC and means so much to the boys. I hope one day each of the sponsors has the opportunity to attend one of the boy's concerts, then they will see how enriching their contributions are to the boys and their families.

Sharpening Our eMarketing Leading Edge

McMillion and Associates of Prudential California Realty is a high-producing group of real estate agents working together with the shared commitment of “serving clients first.” Bob McMillion, the group’s leader, says, “Our organizational purpose and structure was conceived during the completion of my graduate studies at Chapman University. What we call “Leadership Sales” is a dynamic, proprietary model encompassing several things. It is about accepting our responsibility to our clients. It is taking initiative as a leader in the “virtual organization” created during a [real estate] sales transaction. The outcome is superior results for our clients, both Sellers and Buyers.”

When it comes to innovating on the leading edge of eMarketing (marketing real estate using the internet) McMillion understands what he is talking about. Armed with a degree in Computer Science and twenty-years in high-technology sales and marketing, the McMillion and Associates approach balances conventional print media marketing with electronic technology e-marketing. McMillion explains why, “We know that something like 60-70% of homebuyers find their next home using their agent combined with searching on the internet. Serving our clients requires us to be a dominant force in the online marketing world. We are committed to giving our clients that kind of innovation.”

The organization is making good on McMillion’s commitment. Just this week McMillion and Associates released a powerful new website that provides uncommon features for buyers to preview their clients’ homes and for searching the MLS using a technology called Internet Data Exchange. The McMillion and Associates website, www.McMillionAssociates.com is replete with technology advances like QuickTime Movies of their listings, Google mapping and property brochure downloading capability. Their website provides a host of site links for the South Orange County communities the group serves including San Clemente, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Beach and more. For fun, take a look at the “blogs” (web-logs) being maintained by each of the agents.

“Our clients deserve the very best we can produce,” said McMillion emphatically. “We give our clients really sharp printed marketing materials, gorgeous advertising and the most robust e-marketing technology available in creating a fully balanced strategic marketing campaign. We are proud of what we do and how we serve our clients.”

The Coast 2007 Community Garage Sale

Annually a community wide garage sale occurs in the North San Clemente Community of The Coast. This year the event is scheduled for Saturday, March 24th. Every year the number of homeowners participating in the community garage sale increases. Typically there are 40 or more sleepy homeowners who throw up their garage doors and trade some unwanted "stuff" for some quick cash. Last year a Calle Amigo resident reported having sold a very nice motorcycle during the garage sale! That seems to be the "big ticket" record sale so far. Usually we see items sold such as household articles, furniture, clothing, sporting equipment, tools, computer gear, artwork, baby items, etc.



Our real estate company, McMillion & Associates, sponsors the event which means...

• Mailing Postcards to all the homeowners so they know when the event is coming


• Reminding them that the date of the garage sale is coming


• Registering the Participating Homeowners so we can direct buyers to them


• Publishing Garage Sale Advertisements in the San Clemente Times and PennySaver


• Putting up Directional Signs the morning of the event throughout The Coast Community


• Delivering Muffins and Bagels to residents on the day of the Garage Sale

If you live in The Coast and want to get rid of your spouse's junk, clear out the garage or just make some "big bucks," you can register by emailing us at bob@McMillionAssociates.com or calling our Registration Hotline (949) 487.3145.

Dorothy Visser Senior Center

Recently my son, Morgan, and I attended an information meeting for the new Dorothy Visser Senior Center that will be developed in San Clemente. It was held at the Pacifica Country Club. We learned the current Senior Center, located adjacent to the library on Del Mar, was opened quite some time ago.

The new Dorothy Visser Center will be constructed in the vacant lot behind Hollywood Video on Avenida Victoria. Morgan had a great time with the appetizers and refreshments. We visited with the Honorary Chairperson for the Senior Center, former San Clemente Mayor Susan Ritschel. Morgan got to meet many community minded people working together to make this project a reality for San Clemente seniors. He enjoyed getting dressed up and spending time with his dad (and Dad was proud to have his handsome son with him).

McMillion & Associates has contributed to the development of the Senior Center and pledged to be an ongoing supporter. For information pertaining to seniors visit www.SouthCountySeniors.org